Here ya go Sky...

[PKRWUD]

This is what I was telling you about in my last email. I guess anything is possible if you search for the right perspective.

Several nights ago I thought I would hit my favorite search engine and find out how many personal computers there are in the world. About two hours later I had to finally give up the search for the night, and just go to bed. It seems that innocent sounding question doesn't have a widely published answer.

I'm now glad that I invested the time to dig up the numbers, because the reality they reveal is pretty startling. And, after dozens of telephone calls and e-mails, and many more hours spent on the internet, all to find this one tiny pool of data, I finally pieced it all together.

Now the question begs, just why was this so important to me? The answer is simply that I keep reading manufacturer's numbers about their sales, analyst rants about the state of the industry, and media numbers about market shares, but without knowing the size of the market, I can't put the numbers into any reasonable perspective. If somebody sells 10,000 widgets this quarter, is that a lot of widgets, or just a few?

I don't care about widget sales, but sales of computer operating systems. Specifically, I am trying to get a handle on the evolving relationship between Microsoft's Windows XP and Apple's OS X... without any manufacturer's smoke clouding my vision.



The Tale Of Two Operating Systems

Everybody today knows that Microsoft Windows is the 600 pound gorilla of the personal computer operating system business. And, everybody knows that "Windows has 95% of the market.".

Before I get to some interesting revelations about the true condition of the Windows vs. OS X feud, let me just relate a few recent statements made in public by both camps.
Just this past week, Microsoft has said that, "... more than 46 million copies of Windows XP have been sold through OEMs and retail outlets since the software's release in October 2001."
Apple shipped the first release of OS X on March 24th, 2001. And, since that time, according to Apple's Phil Schiller, it is estimated that just over 3.0 million Mac users have adopted OS X as their primary operating system.

Frankly, without any sort of overall market size reference, these are both pretty impressive numbers, especially as the general ratio still seems to jibe with that ubiquitous 95/5 ratio we all believe exists.

The Operating System Numbers

Now, let's take a look at this simple set of numbers that took me somewhere around 30 hours of research to develop and to verify.
Here are the approximate numbers of computers today in the world, by operating system and application:
520,000 AS400's, 210,000 mainframes, 3 million Unix servers, 9 million NT servers, 240 million Windows PC's, 32 million Macintosh PC's, and 3 million Linux PC's.

Now that we have some real numbers to work from, let's do some playful analysis.
First, let's take a look at the percentage of all personal computers running Windows XP. Interestingly, of the 240 million total Windows based PC's in the world, only 46 million have been upgraded to XP; that's about 19% of the total Windows market running XP. If we include Mac and Linux systems in the market total, it brings the XP percentage down to only 16.7%. Now, I can see why Microsoft is a little touchy about XP sales. XP is an upgrade that is nearly 100% compatible with the previous version, so no software and few work habits must be abandoned for a user to move up to XP. Even so, adoption is still only at under 20%.
Of the total Mac installed base of about 32 million units, at least 3 million have installed and are running OS X as their primary operating system. That's pushing the 10% penetration level that Phil Schiller mentioned at Seybold. Not bad for a new OS that requires that you scrap most of your older software and work habits. Even with that barrier to adoption, that 10% of Mac users has moved to the new platform. Not bad.

Despite the statistical novelty of those ideas, the real shocker in these numbers is here: Of the 275 million personal computers in the world today, 32 million of them run some version of the Mac OS. Folks, that's not 5%, like the urban legend has it; that's 11.6% of the worldwide personal computer market. And, it's certainly not the 3% or so recently published as the Mac's share of new computer sales.

So what?

So, more than 1 in 10 people who use personal computers in the world are already using a Mac operating system.
The last time I checked, 5% did not equal 11.6%.

The Hardware Numbers

To cap off this interesting study, I'll now share one more group of estimates with you: the percentages of installed personal computers around the world, by manufacturer. These numbers are drawn a from about 20 different fragmentary sources, and have been compiled by me, to the point that I am confident in their general accuracy. Take a look.

11.6% Apple
10.4% Compaq
9.8% Dell
9.1% IBM
7.3% Hewlett-Packard
5.1% Sony
3.4% Toshiba
3.1% NEC
3.0% Packard-Bell
2.1% eMachines
1.7% Microstar
1.3% Fujitsu
32.1% Others (each less than 1%)

Yes, gentle readers, Apple has more installed personal computers in the world than any other individual computer brand. To phrase that idea in another, totally acceptable and accurate manner:

Macintosh is the number one computer in the world.



Take care,
~Chris

[PKRWUD]

Two footnotes i need to mention:

First, Jack Campbell, a successful entrepreneur and journalist, is the gentleman that wrote that article, and did the research. i was not trying to take credit for it, I just forgot to mention him. My bad.

Second, this is just fun info. I am not trying to start a flame war. Keep in mind that whatever computer and/or OS you use does not affect me one way or the other. I have absolutely nothing to gain if someone was to switch over to a Mac because of something I, or anybody else, wrote. Please remember that.

Thanks.



Take care,
~Chris

[1969Mach1]

Good point PKRWUD, but did you think that 16.7% is only the percentage of legal users. I have 2 PC's with XP on them, both of them are not registered threw MS so they don't know I have it. I bet there is a good 10-15% more users with illegal copies of XP on it. I'm no experct of Mac but I'm sure there software isn't pirated nearly as much as Microsoft's software.

And to compare Apple's sale over one individual company is at a unfair advantage. Look how many Mac's are sold compared to PC's ran with Windows then you have a stat on which PC's over rule the world. Personally I have no need for Mac's, they are great PC's if you do alot of rendering and anything to do with digital media really. I like Linux but it's only really good for being stable, running servers, Windows NT good for security, XP all around general good OS for the everyday user and then they have XP Professional which is good for companies to use and such.

This is a very heated debate that I'm just going from information in my head. If you want to go into facts and research, I'll go to sleep cause & wake me up when ya're done, cause no one will ever win.

§am.

[shadowblue89]

Originally posted by 1969Mach1
I'm no experct of Mac but I'm sure there software isn't pirated nearly as much as Microsoft's software.

Actually Mac software is pirated just as much as Microsoft's. No matter what platform you are on some one out there can get the serial numbers and software itself pretty much for anything.

[srv1]

1969Mach1 took the words out of my mouth. I have XP Pro. I didnt pay for it and i also shared it with 5 other people.

And to compare Apple's sale over one individual company is at a unfair advantage. Look how many Mac's are sold compared to PC's ran with Windows then you have a stat on which PC's over rule the world.

Yeah Chris, it sounds like you are making Apple look bigger than they actually are. Yeah, from that point of view, Apple is BIGGER! Yet, Microsoft has 95% of the market. That just doesn't add up...hmmmm...

[Skyman]

Thats quite interesting Chris..

I do agree though on the Pirated XP. And yeah, there are a LOT of people out there that still havn't heard about it.

When you mean versions of APPLE OS are you talking about Unix and Linux or what?

Skyler

[jj_jonathon]

taking the 3%ers and up we notice that if we take the computers in the list and calculate the ones with windows its actually 10.4% + 9.8% + 9.1% + 7.3% + 5.1% + 3.4% + 3.1% + 3% which is 51.2%...and this doesnt include that other 37.2% which are probably 90% windows too....you forgot that windows doesnt make computers :P lol...so your hypothesis at the end that mac is the #1 computer is true, but you were comparing the operating systems not computers...so windows has a much largermarket than you mentioned at the end and still manages somewhere around an 8:1 percentage over apple....

the only reason apple has the highest is because are the only complany selling their type of computer...compaq/dell/ibm/HP etc all make the same kind, but theyre easier to copy and sell...

so :P mac is NOT the number 1 computer in the world...hehe

good try though...you twist words well...err..that "guy" does...hehe

Jonathon

[silver_pilate]

1969Mach1,

Uh oh...what's that noise I hear...BAM!!....BAM!!....BAM!!!....

Could it be the sound of Gate's croonies knocking down your door......

--nathan

[1969Mach1]

hahaha... lol If Gates want's me then he has to come get me personally. lol Microsoft doesn't really care for personal users, it's more piracy in big companies, companies that pay for 1 licence and use it on 100 + machines as an example. And my days of pirating is over, I just use pirated software. I used to run FTP's, hosting it and creat groups and stuff. I was more into movies though. I used to have a channel on IRC that was huge, I had people pirating movies for me and everything. But it's all fun and games tell you get caught, lol my ISP emailed me telling me to stop or they would stop providing me internet and threated to contact the RCMP. So I shut down my ftp real quick and said that was enough. Although I was making money from doing it (advertisements) so it was worth it. =)

§am.

Originally posted by silver_pilate
1969Mach1,

Uh oh...what's that noise I hear...BAM!!....BAM!!....BAM!!!....

Could it be the sound of Gate's croonies knocking down your door......

--nathan

[Titan]

As my avatar reveals, I go to tech, and I can tell you piracy is such a joke here. Anything you want, ANYTHING, can be found on this campus. I have just about any program known, and I paid for one of them...and that was a $10 game I'm addicted to. I have a feeling that 10-15% number is way low. I got my XP about 2 months before it was even released (not a good idea...there were no drivers for ANYTHING...so instead of the first "cool" kid w/ XP, i turned into the guy that couldn't do crap on his comp.). Anyway...just letting you know that any program, whether an o/s or not, is out there...you can invest the $500 bucks buying it, or the 50 hours finding it...whichever you want.